OAKRaiders
5-5
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
7 mph
20
MIADolphins
6-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
10
3
0
0
13
Dolphins
7
7
6
0
20
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
422
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
5.0
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.11
Passing Yards
260
323
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.02
Rushing Yards
36
99
Rush Attempts
16
28
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-10.43
-10.39
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-2
Sack EPA
-3.20
-0.84
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
41
44
Penalty EPA
-4.79
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+280
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+80.5
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.7
Net QB Adjustment
+73.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-52.8
Market Regression
+90.4
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-52.8
Value
Ptile
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
24
26
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
3
14
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
24
17
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
24
23
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U