OAKRaiders
1-3
20
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
5-0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
10
0
7
20
Falcons
0
7
6
4
17
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
286
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
7.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.20
Passing Yards
325
241
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.19
Rushing Yards
149
45
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-23.59
-13.41
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-8
Sack EPA
-12.41
-1.19
Penalties
12
2
Penalty Yards
110
25
Penalty EPA
-15.25
-1.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
18
6
Fumbles / Game
16
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
28
7
Falcons Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
17
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
24
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U