OAKRaiders
2-5
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
14 mph
27
JAXJaguars
2-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
13
0
0
20
Jaguars
0
10
7
10
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
403
Total Plays
57
68
Yards / Play
5.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.09
Passing Yards
248
--
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
25/31(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.44
Rushing Yards
73
168
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-2.54
-4.72
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.10
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
30
Penalty EPA
-2.33
-1.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+60.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
-11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
8
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
1
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
30
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U