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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ jets week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
-
14
TBD
MetLife Stadium
76°F
12 mph
19
NYJJets
-
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
76°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
0
0
7
14
Jets
3
7
3
6
19

Spread

OAK logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
158
402
Total Plays
49
66
Yards / Play
3.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.06
Passing Yards
133
190
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.08
Rushing Yards
25
212
Rush Attempts
15
34
Yards / Rush
1.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
11
20
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.86
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-4.29
-5.71
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
20
105
Penalty EPA
-2.29
-12.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-7.0
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
No recent game data available
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
10/20
-1.3
43
10/27
-6.6
13
11/03
-3.4
28
11/17
-15.3
0
11/24
-10.7
3
12/01
-8.0
7
12/08
3.7
75
12/15
-3.8
26
12/22
6.5
88
12/29
4.4
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense
Raiders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5

EPA

EPA / Play
32
26
EPA / Pass
31
24
EPA / Rush
32
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
8
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
3
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jets logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
29
27
EPA / Rush
10
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
32
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/03
-29
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
W
O
11/17
5
W
W
O
11/24
-4
L
L
P
11/28
-7
L
W
O
12/08
-10
L
L
O
12/15
-25
L
L
O
12/22
-13
L
L
U
12/29
-20
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
-40
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-23
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-20
L
L
U
12/08
10
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
P
O
12/22
11
W
W
U
12/29
13
W
W
U