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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ jets week 12, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-4
3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
12 mph
34
NYJJets
3-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
0
0
0
3
Jets
3
10
15
0
28

Spread

NYJ logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
208
401
Total Plays
57
60
Yards / Play
3.6
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.11
Passing Yards
140
313
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.53
Rushing Yards
68
88
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
10
21
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.27
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-2
Sack EPA
-1.39
-0.88
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-5.79
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model57.4%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,340
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+93.6
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
+26.6
Net QB Adjustment
+11.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.2
Away QB Adjustment
+15.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-51.7
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Value
Ptile
09/09
5.1
84
09/15
-5.5
17
09/22
0.5
55
09/29
0.5
55
10/06
3.8
77
10/20
4.9
83
10/27
4.1
79
11/03
2.6
69
11/07
-0.9
47
11/17
0.3
54
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
Value
Ptile
12/15
2.6
68
12/23
6.2
86
12/30
-4.5
20
09/08
-2.2
36
10/13
2.7
70
10/21
-14.9
0
10/27
-10.3
4
11/03
-3.2
30
11/10
2.2
68
11/17
2.7
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense
Raiders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2

EPA

EPA / Play
14
9
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
21
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
2
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jets logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
6

EPA

EPA / Play
32
31
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
31
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
27
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
21
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
W
U
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/07
2
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-1
L
L
U
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
W
O
10/06
-25
L
L
U
10/13
2
W
W
O
10/21
-33
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/03
-8
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
O
11/17
17
W
W
O