OAKRaiders
3-2
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
55°F
6 mph
42
GBPackers
5-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
55°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
7
7
7
24
Packers
7
14
14
7
42
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
484
481
Total Plays
62
55
Yards / Play
7.8
8.7
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.55
Passing Yards
--
421
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
25/31(81%)
Yards / Pass
--
13.6
EPA / Pass
+0.74
+1.03
Rushing Yards
155
60
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
64%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.54
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-2.14
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
97
20
Penalty EPA
-7.67
-2.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-41.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+18.9
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
15
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Packers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6
EPA
EPA / Play
7
31
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
32
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U