OAKRaiders
7-5
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
15 mph
46
GBPackers
12-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
7
7
14
Packers
14
17
6
3
40
Spread
-12
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
384
Total Plays
73
59
Yards / Play
4.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.28
Passing Yards
240
248
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.15
Rushing Yards
117
136
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.48
-4.62
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-26
Sack EPA
-2.54
-5.65
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
89
35
Penalty EPA
-10.79
-3.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market83.4%
Model83.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,712
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
280.4
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
6
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
23
17
Packers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
16
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
30
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U