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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ patriots week 3, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-0
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
73°F
8 mph
36
NEPatriots
1-1
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
73°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
7
0
10
20
Patriots
0
13
10
7
30

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
375
406
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
6.7
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.17
Passing Yards
249
156
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.16
Rushing Yards
126
250
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-17.71
-5.10
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-6
Sack EPA
-12.52
-2.70
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-7.37
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.6%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
+5.8
Final Difference
125.4
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Value
Ptile
11/07
-0.9
47
11/17
0.3
54
11/24
-6.0
15
12/01
-3.7
26
12/08
4.6
82
12/15
-1.4
43
12/22
5.6
85
12/29
4.2
80
09/13
3.4
69
09/21
5.0
78
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
11/08
-2.0
33
11/18
3.1
70
11/25
9.1
94
12/02
-4.7
19
12/09
-1.1
39
12/17
-9.2
5
09/08
-4.7
21
09/12
-4.5
22
09/13
4.3
75
09/20
10.2
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Raiders logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26

EPA

EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
12
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Patriots logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
27
30
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23

EPA

EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
4
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
24
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
2
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
L
U
11/24
-31
L
L
U
12/01
-31
L
L
U
12/08
-21
L
L
O
12/15
-4
L
L
U
12/22
7
W
W
U
12/29
-1
L
W
U
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/21
10
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
7
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
P
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O
01/04
-7
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
U
09/20
-5
L
L
O