OAKRaiders
2-0
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
73°F
8 mph
36
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
73°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
7
0
10
20
Patriots
0
13
10
7
30
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
406
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
6.7
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.17
Passing Yards
249
156
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.16
Rushing Yards
126
250
Rush Attempts
22
38
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-17.71
-5.10
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-6
Sack EPA
-12.52
-2.70
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-7.37
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
Raiders+7.0
Expected Value
+8.6%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
+6.1
Final Difference
126.4
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
12
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
30
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
24
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U