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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ ravens week 10, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
3-5
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
6 mph
55
BALRavens
6-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
10
7
3
20
Ravens
10
17
21
7
55

Spread

BAL logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
422
419
Total Plays
73
62
Yards / Play
5.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.56
Passing Yards
350
--
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.49
Rushing Yards
72
78
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
44%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.19
+3.02
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-5.53
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
105
41
Penalty EPA
-11.67
-3.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model76.5%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
+2.6
Final Difference
205.2
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
12/24
-0.7
47
01/01
8.0
94
09/10
2.7
66
09/16
2.3
63
09/23
4.2
76
09/30
-4.5
22
10/14
2.2
63
10/21
0.9
55
10/28
-0.3
48
11/04
4.2
76
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Value
Ptile
01/15
-3.1
31
01/22
2.6
70
09/10
4.2
76
09/16
-2.0
36
09/23
9.4
95
09/27
1.9
62
10/07
-7.5
8
10/14
1.6
60
10/21
-9.1
4
11/04
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Raiders logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
26
12
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22

EPA

EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
31
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
19
Interceptions / Game
18
13
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
28
1
Ravens Offense vs Raiders Defense
Ravens logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17

EPA

EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
17
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
25
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
6
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-12
L
L
O
09/10
-8
L
L
U
09/16
-22
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
10
W
W
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
7
W
L
U
01/22
-3
L
W
U
09/10
31
W
W
O
09/16
-1
L
W
O
09/23
1
W
L
O
09/27
7
W
L
U
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
2
W
L
O
10/21
-30
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
U