OAKRaiders
-
35
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
034
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
10
0
3
22
35
Saints
3
14
7
10
34
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
490
507
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
7.4
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
419
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.37
Rushing Yards
167
88
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.79
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-4.79
Penalties
14
7
Penalty Yards
141
53
Penalty EPA
-10.94
-7.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+99.3
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-15.7
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
14
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
17
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
9
28
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
10
RZ Efficiency
13
18
Saints Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23
EPA
EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U