OAKRaiders
1-2
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
029
HOUTexans
1-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
3
0
0
6
Texans
3
17
7
0
27
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
165
329
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
2.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.48
-0.08
Passing Yards
120
209
Comp/Att
12/33(36%)
11/22(50%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.02
Rushing Yards
45
120
Rush Attempts
22
41
Yards / Rush
2.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
16
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
13%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-8.84
-6.77
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-5.36
-5.07
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-4.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+213
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+43.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.6
Away QB Adjustment
-23.4
Market Regression
-39.5
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Russell
Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-23.4
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10
EPA
EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
30
11
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
22
21
Fumbles / Game
32
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
30
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
29
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
3
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-1-7
O/U