nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ texans week 16, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-12
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
23
HOUTexans
9-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
7
7
21
Texans
1
6
3
7
17

Spread

OAK logo
+14

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
315
270
Total Plays
53
61
Yards / Play
5.9
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.03
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.08
Rushing Yards
145
83
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.62
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.96
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-4.57
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
85
29
Penalty EPA
-9.99
-2.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+309
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,345
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+23.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-19.3
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-19.3
Value
Ptile
09/28
-3.7
25
10/05
-7.1
8
10/12
-4.2
22
10/19
-5.7
14
11/02
4.7
82
11/06
-8.7
4
11/17
-4.5
20
11/23
-4.5
20
11/30
-4.0
24
12/07
-2.9
30
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
09/15
-3.1
28
09/21
-3.6
26
09/28
3.0
73
10/05
9.5
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.4
93
11/02
-4.3
21
11/30
-2.9
30
12/07
-4.1
23
12/14
5.5
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Raiders logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4

EPA

EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Texans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
30
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-34
L
L
U
10/12
10
W
W
U
10/19
-31
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/23
-14
L
L
U
11/30
-17
L
L
O
12/07
-7
L
W
O
12/14
-31
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
34
W
W
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
20
W
W
O