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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ titans week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
-
13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
9 mph
38
TENTitans
-
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
3
0
7
13
Titans
10
14
7
7
38

Spread

TEN logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
286
345
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
4.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.20
Passing Yards
151
140
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
13/17(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.15
Rushing Yards
135
205
Rush Attempts
25
39
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
21%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.11
-4.83
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-4.99
-6.18
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
77
81
Penalty EPA
-8.97
-9.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model73.7%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
-1.3
Final Difference
179.2
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
10/26
0.3
52
11/08
-2.9
32
11/15
0.5
54
11/22
0.2
52
11/29
2.1
65
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.5
59
12/21
-6.4
13
12/27
-4.6
21
01/03
6.1
86
V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
11/01
1.3
58
11/08
1.2
58
11/15
4.2
77
11/23
3.3
72
11/29
3.8
74
12/06
1.5
60
12/13
3.9
74
12/20
2.8
68
12/25
-5.4
17
01/03
-3.8
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Titans Defense
Raiders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20

EPA

EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
5
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Titans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Titans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
29

EPA

EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
28
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
13
26
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
10
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
11/01
-8
L
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-17
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
W
O
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/20
1
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
17
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
U
12/13
40
W
W
O
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/25
-25
L
L
O
01/03
4
W
L
U