LARRams
-
0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
17 mph
28
SF49ers
-
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
0
0
0
49ers
7
7
0
14
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
185
320
Total Plays
60
77
Yards / Play
3.1
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.48
+0.03
Passing Yards
120
--
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.59
-0.18
Rushing Yards
65
150
Rush Attempts
23
42
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
27
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
20%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.74
-3.91
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.15
--
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
87
--
Penalty EPA
-10.88
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
-18.8
Away QB Adjustment
-17.0
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.0
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
32
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
27
Rushing Yards / Game
31
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
31
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
24
28
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U