LARRams
4-1
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
86°F
10 mph
24
SF49ers
2-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
86°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
6
3
7
16
49ers
7
14
0
3
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
390
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.39
Rushing Yards
113
122
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.66
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
34
63
Penalty EPA
-4.27
-4.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
+6.8
Final Difference
-38.2
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
9
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
18
9
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U