LARRams
3-5
24
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
5 mph
24
SF49ers
6-2
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
14
0
3
7
24
49ers
0
7
0
17
24
Spread
+13.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
341
Total Plays
80
64
Yards / Play
5.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.08
Passing Yards
299
158
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.05
Rushing Yards
159
183
Rush Attempts
37
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
25
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.03
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-0.39
-6.77
Penalties
13
7
Penalty Yards
85
66
Penalty EPA
-7.85
-8.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
+37.8
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
12
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
19
27
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
29
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
6
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U