LARRams
7-2
10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
031
SF49ers
3-5
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
0
3
10
49ers
8
7
3
7
25
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
335
Total Plays
54
64
Yards / Play
5.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.18
Passing Yards
226
179
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
15/19(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.81
Rushing Yards
52
156
Rush Attempts
10
44
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
30%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.89
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
-3
Sack EPA
-2.54
-1.79
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
35
53
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-6.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+19.6
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
13
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
17
13
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
6
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U