nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
8-6
31
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
12 mph
34
SF49ers
11-3
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
14
7
3
31
49ers
3
15
0
10
28

Spread

LAR logo
+7

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
395
334
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
5.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.00
Passing Yards
--
215
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.26
Rushing Yards
72
119
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
-8.96
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-8.18
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
43
26
Penalty EPA
-6.87
-2.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model65.9%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+25.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
+8.0
Final Difference
114.3
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
10/03
3.0
72
10/13
-8.8
7
10/20
3.1
72
10/27
3.6
76
11/10
-8.6
7
11/17
-3.3
29
11/25
-4.1
25
12/01
7.3
91
12/08
1.3
63
12/15
0.4
54
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Value
Ptile
10/13
-0.4
50
10/20
-6.5
13
10/27
-1.0
47
10/31
7.6
92
11/11
-8.8
7
11/17
6.7
89
11/24
0.6
56
12/01
-0.5
49
12/08
5.9
86
12/15
-1.3
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12

EPA

EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
28
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
6
27
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18

EPA

EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
19
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-1
L
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
27
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
-5
L
L
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/25
-39
L
L
O
12/01
27
W
W
U
12/08
16
W
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
13
W
W
U
10/20
9
W
L
U
10/27
38
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
O
11/11
-3
L
L
O
11/17
10
W
P
O
11/24
29
W
W
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O