LARRams
8-6
31
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
12 mph
34
SF49ers
11-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
14
7
3
31
49ers
3
15
0
10
28
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
334
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
5.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.00
Passing Yards
--
215
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.26
Rushing Yards
72
119
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
-8.96
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-8.18
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
43
26
Penalty EPA
-6.87
-2.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model65.9%
Spread Pick
Rams+7.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+25.5
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
+8.0
Final Difference
114.6
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
28
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
6
27
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U