LARRams
7-8
16
TBD
Levi's Stadium
53°F
6 mph
19
SF49ers
4-11
TBD
Levi's Stadium
53°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
3
13
0
0
0
16
49ers
0
10
3
3
3
19
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
458
Total Plays
71
78
Yards / Play
5.1
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
350
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.03
Rushing Yards
133
108
Rush Attempts
33
33
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.67
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-0.98
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
105
60
Penalty EPA
-9.44
-4.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+63.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-56.7
Away QB Adjustment
-40.5
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-40.5
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-56.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
32
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
24
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
21
21
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U