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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ bears week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
1-1
6
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
10 mph
23
CHIBears
1-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
3
0
6
Bears
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

CHI logo
-7

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
160
274
Total Plays
58
67
Yards / Play
2.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.02
Passing Yards
101
171
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.59
-0.20
Rushing Yards
59
103
Rush Attempts
17
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.53
-6.03
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-51
-12
Sack EPA
-10.79
-3.10
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-7.00
-6.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model78.8%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+274
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,340
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
-6.8
Final Difference
228.1
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
09/25
-6.1
13
10/02
-9.7
2
10/16
-0.4
49
11/06
-4.2
24
11/13
-2.2
35
11/20
-8.9
3
11/27
-1.3
43
12/12
-8.1
5
09/09
-2.8
32
09/16
6.2
88
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Value
Ptile
09/25
-0.9
45
10/02
-6.1
13
10/10
2.2
67
10/16
4.9
81
10/23
-5.1
18
11/07
3.2
73
11/13
-3.8
26
11/20
5.3
83
09/09
1.2
57
09/13
-17.7
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Rams logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7

EPA

EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
22
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Bears logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15

EPA

EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
22
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
1
W
W
U
11/20
-17
L
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
-26
L
L
U
12/12
-17
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
P
U
12/24
-27
L
L
U
01/01
-7
L
W
O
09/09
-4
L
W
O
09/16
3
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
O
11/27
-5
L
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-24
L
L
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
09/13
-13
L
L
U