LARRams
1-1
6
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
10 mph
23
CHIBears
1-1
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
3
0
6
Bears
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
160
274
Total Plays
58
67
Yards / Play
2.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.02
Passing Yards
101
171
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.59
-0.20
Rushing Yards
59
103
Rush Attempts
17
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.53
-6.03
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-51
-12
Sack EPA
-10.79
-3.10
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-7.00
-6.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model79.0%
Spread Pick
Bears-7.0
Expected Value
+25.5%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,338
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
230.3
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
22
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U