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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ bears week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
1-2
18
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
16 mph
24
CHIBears
1-2
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
3
9
18
Bears
0
10
7
7
24

Spread

CHI logo
-3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
322
264
Total Plays
59
54
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.08
Passing Yards
203
133
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.09
Rushing Yards
119
131
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.59
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-24
Sack EPA
-8.86
-4.42
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
44
84
Penalty EPA
-7.32
-9.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+79.5
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
-24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
36.0
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+3.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
11/26
5.8
85
12/03
7.1
91
12/10
4.4
78
12/17
1.8
62
12/21
6.4
88
12/31
-3.0
29
01/14
4.8
80
09/08
0.9
54
09/15
-5.6
13
09/22
-1.3
39
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-24.3
Value
Ptile
09/08
-7.5
7
09/15
-10.2
2
09/22
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Rams logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27

EPA

EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
27
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
25
3
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Bears logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
32
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
20
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
9
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
17
W
W
O
12/10
-6
L
W
O
12/17
8
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/31
1
W
L
O
01/07
1
W
W
O
01/14
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-31
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-5
L
W
O
11/27
2
W
W
U
12/10
15
W
W
U
12/17
-3
L
P
U
12/24
11
W
W
O
12/31
20
W
W
O
01/07
-8
L
L
U
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
P
U
09/22
-5
L
L
U