LARRams
1-2
18
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
16 mph
24
CHIBears
1-2
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
3
9
18
Bears
0
10
7
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
264
Total Plays
59
54
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.08
Passing Yards
203
133
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.09
Rushing Yards
119
131
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.59
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-24
Sack EPA
-8.86
-4.42
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
44
84
Penalty EPA
-7.32
-9.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
Rams+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+79.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
-24.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
36.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
25
3
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
32
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U