LARRams
1-10
9
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
8 mph
17
CHIBears
4-7
TBD
Soldier Field
36°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
3
3
9
Bears
10
0
7
0
17
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
248
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
3.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.12
Passing Yards
98
128
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
9/18(50%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.74
-0.19
Rushing Yards
135
120
Rush Attempts
30
38
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
14
Passing 1st downs
6
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
14%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.55
-4.04
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-15
-15
Sack EPA
-6.88
-2.57
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
85
35
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-3.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,307
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
K. Boller
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24
EPA
EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
29
27
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
30
31
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U