LARRams
1-1
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
74°F
7 mph
19
CINBengals
0-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
74°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
3
7
16
Bengals
0
6
10
3
19
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
309
Total Plays
52
74
Yards / Play
5.6
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.09
Passing Yards
221
242
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
26/49(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.13
Rushing Yards
71
67
Rush Attempts
13
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
9%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.70
-4.15
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-48
-17
Sack EPA
-8.58
-2.82
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
28
49
Penalty EPA
-4.73
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-23.1
Net QB Adjustment
-22.3
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
-63.7
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
8
10
Bengals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
15
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U