LARRams
4-6
7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
41°F
8 mph
31
CINBengals
8-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
41°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
7
0
0
7
Bengals
7
10
8
0
25
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
376
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
4.9
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.10
Passing Yards
251
--
Comp/Att
36/53(68%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.15
Rushing Yards
94
140
Rush Attempts
17
31
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.86
-3.11
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.41
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-3.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+72.3
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.0
Net QB Adjustment
+26.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
+8.1
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
7
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
15
27
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Bengals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
12
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
5
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bengals
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
6-4
O/U