LARRams
15-5
23
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
020
CINBengals
13-7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
6
3
7
23
Bengals
3
7
10
0
20
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
305
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
4.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.13
Passing Yards
270
226
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.17
Rushing Yards
43
79
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.17
--
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-13
-43
Sack EPA
-3.95
-11.54
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
31
Penalty EPA
--
-3.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,670
Home Field
-19.4
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-19.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
13
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
31
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
17
17
Bengals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
22
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
O/U