LARRams
2-0
32
TBD
New Era Field
79°F
16 mph
35
BUFBills
2-0
TBD
New Era Field
79°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
14
15
32
Bills
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
480
375
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
7.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.26
Passing Yards
313
274
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.26
Rushing Yards
167
101
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
23
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.17
-6.94
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-37
Sack EPA
-3.06
-9.85
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.77
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model49.1%
Spread Pick
Rams+2.0
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-6.3
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
14
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
20
13
EPA / Rush
24
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
16
12
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
16
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
23
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U