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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ bills week 3, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
2-0
32
TBD
New Era Field
79°F
16 mph
35
BUFBills
2-0
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
79°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
14
15
32
Bills
7
14
7
7
35

Spread

BUF logo
-2

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
480
375
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
7.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.26
Passing Yards
313
274
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.26
Rushing Yards
167
101
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
28
23
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.17
-6.94
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-37
Sack EPA
-3.06
-9.85
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.77
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.1%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-5.2
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
11/10
-8.6
7
11/17
-3.3
29
11/25
-4.1
25
12/01
7.3
91
12/08
1.3
63
12/15
0.4
54
12/21
3.6
76
12/29
4.2
79
09/13
-1.1
36
09/20
5.9
83
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Value
Ptile
11/17
9.9
96
11/24
2.3
68
11/28
3.2
72
12/08
-9.0
6
12/15
0.0
52
12/21
1.5
65
12/29
-7.2
11
01/04
-0.2
51
09/13
8.7
94
09/20
10.7
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Rams logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
22
14
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20

EPA

EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
20
13
EPA / Rush
24
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
21
Interceptions / Game
16
12
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
16
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Bills logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
16
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
23
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
12
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-5
L
L
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/25
-39
L
L
O
12/01
27
W
W
U
12/08
16
W
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/21
-3
L
W
O
12/29
7
W
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/24
17
W
W
U
11/28
11
W
W
U
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
W
U
12/21
-7
L
P
O
12/29
-7
L
L
U
01/04
-3
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
O
09/20
3
W
L
O