LARRams
5-0
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
25°F
6 mph
20
DENBroncos
2-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
25°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
7
7
3
23
Broncos
3
0
7
10
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
357
Total Plays
72
60
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.00
Passing Yards
174
297
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.00
Rushing Yards
270
60
Rush Attempts
39
17
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.41
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
47%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.04
-3.13
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-27
-25
Sack EPA
-6.61
-4.70
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
81
61
Penalty EPA
-10.77
-2.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-202
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,676
Home Field
+67.1
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-26.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
+37.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+37.5
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
3
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Broncos Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
8
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U