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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ broncos week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
5-0
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
25°F
6 mph
20
DENBroncos
2-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
25°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
6
7
7
3
23
Broncos
3
0
7
10
20

Spread

DEN logo
+7

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
444
357
Total Plays
72
60
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.00
Passing Yards
174
297
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.00
Rushing Yards
270
60
Rush Attempts
39
17
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.41
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
47%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.04
-3.13
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-27
-25
Sack EPA
-6.61
-4.70
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
81
61
Penalty EPA
-10.77
-2.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-202
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,674
Home Field
+68.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-26.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
+37.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+37.5
Value
Ptile
12/03
1.0
60
12/10
0.9
59
12/17
-2.9
32
12/24
5.6
87
01/06
-2.9
33
09/10
0.3
49
09/16
3.0
70
09/23
9.7
95
09/27
16.2
99
10/07
2.1
63
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Value
Ptile
12/17
5.5
86
12/23
-6.5
14
12/31
0.2
54
01/14
0.9
59
01/21
-1.5
42
09/09
1.8
60
09/16
-1.7
35
09/23
-4.5
20
10/01
-6.2
12
10/07
2.9
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Broncos Defense
Rams logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
3
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Broncos Offense vs Rams Defense
Broncos logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17

EPA

EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
8
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
18
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-8
L
L
O
12/17
35
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
L
O
12/31
-21
L
L
O
01/06
-13
L
L
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/16
34
W
W
U
09/23
12
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-26
L
L
O
12/10
23
W
W
U
12/14
12
W
W
U
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-3
L
L
O
09/09
3
W
P
O
09/16
1
W
L
U
09/23
-13
L
L
U
10/01
-4
L
L
U
10/07
-18
L
L
O