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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ buccaneers week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
1-1
37
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
4 mph
32
TBBuccaneers
1-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
7
7
7
31
Buccaneers
0
14
0
12
26

Spread

LAR logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
320
472
Total Plays
61
84
Yards / Play
5.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.07
Passing Yards
183
389
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
36/60(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.01
Rushing Yards
137
83
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
18
30
Passing 1st downs
8
21
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.79
-16.19
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-16
Sack EPA
-1.40
-10.08
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
69
80
Penalty EPA
-4.98
-9.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.9
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
35.2
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
12/15
-11.3
2
12/21
-4.6
22
12/28
0.7
54
11/22
-5.0
15
12/13
-6.3
10
12/17
1.3
60
12/27
-1.4
40
01/03
-0.8
46
09/12
-10.4
2
09/18
-2.1
34
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Value
Ptile
11/15
-4.4
17
11/22
7.1
91
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78
12/27
-0.2
49
01/03
0.4
52
09/11
6.6
88
09/18
-10.7
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22

EPA

EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
16
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
31
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16

EPA

EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
28
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
21
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
P
U
11/29
-24
L
L
U
12/06
-24
L
L
U
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/12
-28
L
L
U
09/18
6
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
4
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/27
-5
L
L
O
01/03
-28
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-33
L
L
U