LARRams
1-1
37
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
4 mph
32
TBBuccaneers
1-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
7
7
7
31
Buccaneers
0
14
0
12
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
472
Total Plays
61
84
Yards / Play
5.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.07
Passing Yards
183
389
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
36/60(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.01
Rushing Yards
137
83
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
30
Passing 1st downs
8
21
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.79
-16.19
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-16
Sack EPA
-1.40
-10.08
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
69
80
Penalty EPA
-4.98
-9.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model54.9%
Spread Pick
Rams+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.9
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
34.3
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
16
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
31
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U