LARRams
6-3
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
5 mph
24
TBBuccaneers
7-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
10
7
3
27
Buccaneers
0
14
3
7
24
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
251
Total Plays
71
67
Yards / Play
5.8
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
209
Comp/Att
39/51(76%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.20
Rushing Yards
37
42
Rush Attempts
20
18
Yards / Rush
1.9
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.31
-8.17
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.40
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
65
--
Penalty EPA
-7.66
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
1
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
21
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
4
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U