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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ buccaneers week 11, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
6-3
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
5 mph
24
TBBuccaneers
7-3
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
69°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
10
7
3
27
Buccaneers
0
14
3
7
24

Spread

LAR logo
+4

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
413
251
Total Plays
71
67
Yards / Play
5.8
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
209
Comp/Att
39/51(76%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.20
Rushing Yards
37
42
Rush Attempts
20
18
Yards / Rush
1.9
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.31
-8.17
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.40
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
65
--
Penalty EPA
-7.66
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
12/29
4.2
79
09/13
-1.1
36
09/20
5.9
83
09/27
5.5
80
10/04
-0.5
43
10/11
4.0
73
10/18
-1.7
31
10/26
2.9
66
11/01
-2.7
26
11/15
-1.6
32
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Value
Ptile
09/13
-0.7
41
09/20
-0.4
43
09/27
3.9
72
10/04
8.9
94
10/08
-0.8
39
10/18
1.6
55
10/25
12.9
98
11/02
2.7
65
11/08
-10.6
2
11/15
8.9
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
1

EPA

EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4

EPA

EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
21
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
4
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
11
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
7
W
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
8
W
L
U
10/11
20
W
W
U
10/18
-8
L
L
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/01
-11
L
L
U
11/15
7
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-11
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
18
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
L
O
10/08
-1
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
U
10/25
25
W
W
O
11/02
2
W
L
O
11/08
-35
L
L
U
11/15
23
W
W
O