LARRams
13-5
30
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
50°F
11 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
14-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
50°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
10
7
3
30
Buccaneers
3
0
10
14
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
359
Total Plays
70
71
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.22
Passing Yards
355
308
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
30/54(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.26
Rushing Yards
73
51
Rush Attempts
30
14
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.68
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
4
1
Turnover EPA
-21.57
-8.62
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-1.93
-9.13
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
61
Penalty EPA
-0.96
-10.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,692
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+42.7
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
31
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U