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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ buccaneers week 20, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
13-5
30
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
50°F
11 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
14-4
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
50°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
10
7
3
30
Buccaneers
3
0
10
14
27

Spread

LAR logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
428
359
Total Plays
70
71
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.22
Passing Yards
355
308
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
30/54(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.26
Rushing Yards
73
51
Rush Attempts
30
14
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.68
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
4
1
Turnover EPA
-21.57
-8.62
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-1.93
-9.13
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
61
Penalty EPA
-0.96
-10.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,693
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
11/07
-0.4
50
11/15
-4.9
20
11/28
1.3
62
12/05
4.6
82
12/13
5.3
85
12/21
-3.1
31
12/26
-6.1
14
01/02
1.2
61
01/09
-4.2
23
01/17
4.6
82
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
11/14
-1.7
41
11/22
2.8
74
11/28
-1.5
42
12/05
8.3
93
12/12
10.1
96
12/19
-8.2
7
12/26
1.9
67
01/02
6.0
87
01/09
8.8
94
01/16
1.7
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3

EPA

EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
31
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5

EPA

EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
11
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
1
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-12
L
L
U
11/15
-21
L
L
U
11/28
-8
L
L
O
12/05
30
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
O
12/21
10
W
W
U
12/26
7
W
W
O
01/02
1
W
L
U
01/09
-3
L
L
O
01/17
23
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
-10
L
L
U
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
6
W
W
O
12/19
-9
L
L
U
12/26
26
W
W
U
01/02
4
W
L
O
01/09
24
W
W
O
01/16
16
W
W
O