LARRams
1-1
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
012
ARICardinals
1-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
3
7
0
20
Cardinals
0
6
3
3
12
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
365
Total Plays
46
81
Yards / Play
7.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.09
Passing Yards
239
295
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
37/58(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.08
Rushing Yards
100
70
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.96
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-19
Sack EPA
-2.20
-3.79
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+34.0
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
10
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
7
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
30
19
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
15
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U