LARRams
3-5
14
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
031
ARICardinals
7-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
7
0
0
14
Cardinals
0
10
0
9
19
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
335
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
4.2
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.47
-0.14
Passing Yards
174
307
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.85
+0.04
Rushing Yards
70
28
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
1.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
10%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.02
-6.45
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-42
-19
Sack EPA
-17.03
-6.01
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
80
35
Penalty EPA
+3.94
-5.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+87.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.1
Away QB Adjustment
-63.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Davis
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-63.3
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
3
EPA / Pass
28
6
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
19
9
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
31
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
8
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
5
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U