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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 12, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
4-6
37
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
14
ARICardinals
2-9
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
14
3
13
37
Cardinals
8
0
0
6
14

Spread

LAR logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
457
294
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
6.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
219
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.31
Rushing Yards
228
75
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.75
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-37
Sack EPA
--
-6.22
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
23
--
Penalty EPA
-5.82
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,349
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+67.7
Home QB Adjustment
+61.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
-5.5
Final Difference
-38.3
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
11/20
0.8
57
09/10
3.6
73
09/17
0.4
52
09/25
-8.1
8
10/01
1.3
58
10/08
-2.1
34
10/15
-2.9
29
10/22
-3.0
29
10/29
-1.9
37
11/19
-3.9
25
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+61.6
Value
Ptile
10/02
3.5
78
10/09
3.5
79
10/16
-2.1
36
10/20
1.3
61
10/30
2.9
75
11/06
1.6
64
11/27
4.3
82
12/12
-4.4
21
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32

EPA

EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
8
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
8
23
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
2
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
15
24
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
16
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
5
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
17
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
W
O
09/25
-3
L
P
U
10/01
6
W
W
O
10/08
-9
L
L
U
10/15
17
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
10/29
-23
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-3
L
W
O
09/24
12
W
W
O
10/01
-19
L
L
O
10/08
-14
L
L
O
10/15
-17
L
L
U
10/22
-10
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
W
O
11/05
-27
L
L
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U