LARRams
4-6
37
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
014
ARICardinals
2-9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
14
3
13
37
Cardinals
8
0
0
6
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
457
294
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
6.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
219
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.31
Rushing Yards
228
75
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.75
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-37
Sack EPA
--
-6.22
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
23
--
Penalty EPA
-5.82
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+67.7
Home QB Adjustment
+61.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
-38.4
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+61.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
8
23
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
15
24
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
16
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U