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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 16, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
1-13
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
31
ARICardinals
9-5
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
7
3
10
Cardinals
0
17
7
7
31

Spread

ARI logo
-16.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
238
407
Total Plays
57
72
Yards / Play
4.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.11
Passing Yards
150
297
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.08
Rushing Yards
88
110
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.87
-2.26
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-16
Sack EPA
-6.27
-6.85
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
20
15
Penalty EPA
-4.81
-1.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5

Win Probability

Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+348
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,306
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5

Quarterbacks

K. Null headshot

K. Null

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
12/13
-9.5
4
12/20
-3.4
28
K. Warner headshot

K. Warner

Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Value
Ptile
10/11
6.3
87
10/18
4.8
81
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-6.5
13
11/08
9.9
96
11/15
9.4
95
11/22
3.7
74
12/06
8.4
93
12/14
-9.1
4
12/20
-3.3
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
30
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
31
18
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
19
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-36
L
L
O
11/01
7
W
W
U
11/15
-5
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
W
U
11/29
-10
L
L
O
12/06
-8
L
W
U
12/13
-40
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
24
W
W
U
10/25
7
W
W
U
11/01
-13
L
L
O
11/08
20
W
W
O
11/15
11
W
W
O
11/22
8
W
L
U
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/14
-15
L
L
U
12/20
7
W
L
O