LARRams
1-13
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
031
ARICardinals
9-5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
7
3
10
Cardinals
0
17
7
7
31
Spread
-16.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
238
407
Total Plays
57
72
Yards / Play
4.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.11
Passing Yards
150
297
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.08
Rushing Yards
88
110
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.87
-2.26
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-16
Sack EPA
-6.27
-6.85
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
20
15
Penalty EPA
-4.81
-1.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+348
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,306
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
K. Null
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
31
18
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U