LARRams
5-10
10
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
031
LACChargers
9-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
7
0
0
10
Chargers
0
17
7
7
31
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
431
Total Plays
48
62
Yards / Play
5.8
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.23
Passing Yards
111
--
Comp/Att
11/19(58%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.61
+0.37
Rushing Yards
166
192
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
6.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.19
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-9.27
--
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.3
Home QB Adjustment
-21.3
Away QB Adjustment
-60.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-60.6
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
23
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Chargers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
19
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
17
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U