LARRams
1-2
29
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
2-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
14
6
3
0
6
29
Colts
0
0
8
15
0
23
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
333
Total Plays
78
60
Yards / Play
6.0
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
303
200
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
11/27(41%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.27
Rushing Yards
164
133
Rush Attempts
36
31
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-4.57
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-4
Sack EPA
-3.38
-3.01
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
85
80
Penalty EPA
-12.84
-12.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+65.9
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.0
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
-3.9
Final Difference
-3.9
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
25
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
8
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U