LARRams
1-0
10
TBD
FedExField
72°F
9 mph
24
WASCommanders
0-1
TBD
FedExField
72°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
10
0
10
Commanders
10
7
0
7
24
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
373
Total Plays
46
66
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.03
Passing Yards
146
191
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
23/27(85%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.18
Rushing Yards
67
182
Rush Attempts
13
37
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
19
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-12
Sack EPA
-1.86
-3.89
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
80
53
Penalty EPA
-2.74
-7.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-29.8
Home QB Adjustment
-9.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
19
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
28
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U