LARRams
3-4
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
043
DALCowboys
4-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
6
8
3
20
Cowboys
11
14
3
7
35
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
387
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.24
Passing Yards
190
285
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.27
Rushing Yards
92
102
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.09
-5.97
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-3.97
-5.94
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
21
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-2.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+71.1
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18
EPA
EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
8
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Cowboys Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U