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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cowboys week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
3-4
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
43
DALCowboys
4-2
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
6
8
3
20
Cowboys
11
14
3
7
35

Spread

DAL logo
-7

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
282
387
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.24
Passing Yards
190
285
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.27
Rushing Yards
92
102
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.09
-5.97
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-3.97
-5.94
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
21
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-2.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+71.8
Base HFA
+43.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.5
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.6
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
10/30
1.3
61
11/06
-6.3
12
11/20
0.8
57
09/10
3.6
73
09/17
0.4
52
09/25
-8.1
8
10/01
1.3
58
10/08
-2.1
34
10/15
-2.9
29
10/22
-3.0
29
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
12/29
0.9
58
01/08
-7.9
6
01/16
12.3
98
01/22
-2.0
38
09/10
-3.1
29
09/17
7.1
91
09/24
-1.1
42
10/01
3.5
73
10/08
-9.1
5
10/16
3.1
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Rams logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18

EPA

EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
8
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Cowboys Offense vs Rams Defense
Cowboys logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13

EPA

EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
7
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
12
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
37
W
W
O
01/01
-21
L
L
U
01/08
-3
L
W
U
09/10
17
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
W
O
09/25
-3
L
P
U
10/01
6
W
W
O
10/08
-9
L
L
U
10/15
17
W
W
U
10/22
-7
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
14
W
P
U
01/08
-20
L
L
U
01/16
17
W
W
U
01/22
-7
L
L
U
09/10
40
W
W
U
09/17
20
W
W
O
09/24
-12
L
L
O
10/01
35
W
W
U
10/08
-32
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
W
U