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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ eagles week 2, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
1-0
37
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
12 mph
19
PHIEagles
0-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
14
7
3
13
37
Eagles
3
13
0
3
19

Spread

LAR logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
449
363
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
6.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.37
-0.00
Passing Yards
258
--
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.79
-0.22
Rushing Yards
191
121
Rush Attempts
39
27
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
30
25
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.69
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.26
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
24
30
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-3.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model47.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
-19.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
10/27
3.6
76
11/10
-8.6
7
11/17
-3.3
29
11/25
-4.1
25
12/01
7.3
91
12/08
1.3
63
12/15
0.4
54
12/21
3.6
76
12/29
4.2
79
09/13
-1.1
36
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Value
Ptile
11/03
-0.2
51
11/17
-2.8
32
11/24
-1.6
42
12/01
0.7
58
12/09
2.1
67
12/15
5.0
83
12/22
6.1
87
12/29
0.4
55
01/05
-9.0
6
09/13
-9.9
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense
Rams logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
22
20
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22

EPA

EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
24
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense
Eagles logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4

EPA

EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
14
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
13
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
-5
L
L
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/25
-39
L
L
O
12/01
27
W
W
U
12/08
16
W
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/21
-3
L
W
O
12/29
7
W
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
8
W
W
U
11/17
-7
L
L
U
11/24
-8
L
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/09
6
W
L
U
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
8
W
W
U
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-8
L
L
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O