LARRams
1-0
37
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
12 mph
19
PHIEagles
0-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
14
7
3
13
37
Eagles
3
13
0
3
19
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
363
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
6.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.37
-0.00
Passing Yards
258
--
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.79
-0.22
Rushing Yards
191
121
Rush Attempts
39
27
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
25
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.69
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.26
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
24
30
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-3.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
-19.7
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
20
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U