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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ eagles week 3, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
2-0
26
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
9 mph
33
PHIEagles
2-0
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
9
7
0
26
Eagles
7
0
14
6
27

Spread

PHI logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
356
288
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.06
Passing Yards
196
202
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.01
Rushing Yards
160
86
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
30%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.91
-5.06
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
-1.90
-10.62
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
41
50
Penalty EPA
-1.91
-2.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+72.9
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
107.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
11/24
0.3
51
12/01
-1.3
39
12/08
8.3
94
12/12
-0.4
46
12/22
-2.0
35
12/28
-3.0
28
01/13
1.3
58
01/19
0.5
52
09/07
0.3
54
09/14
2.1
65
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
12/01
-0.5
46
12/08
1.9
62
12/15
8.5
94
12/22
-4.4
21
01/12
-0.4
46
01/19
-2.4
32
01/26
7.5
92
02/09
6.3
85
09/04
6.5
90
09/14
-3.1
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense
Rams logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
7
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
12
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
4
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense
Eagles logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13

EPA

EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
19
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
16
RZ Efficiency
1
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/12
6
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/28
4
W
L
U
01/05
-5
L
W
O
01/13
18
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
W
O
09/07
5
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
14
W
W
U
12/22
-3
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
7
W
W
U
01/12
12
W
W
U
01/19
6
W
L
O
01/26
32
W
W
O
02/09
18
W
W
O
09/04
4
W
L
U
09/14
3
W
W
U