LARRams
2-0
26
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
9 mph
33
PHIEagles
2-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
10
9
7
0
26
Eagles
7
0
14
6
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
288
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.06
Passing Yards
196
202
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.01
Rushing Yards
160
86
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
30%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.91
-5.06
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
-1.90
-10.62
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
41
50
Penalty EPA
-1.91
-2.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+72.3
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
108.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
26
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
6
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U