LARRams
3-3
37
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
010
ATLFalcons
1-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
10
14
10
37
Falcons
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
224
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
5.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.35
Passing Yards
--
186
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.35
Rushing Yards
90
38
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+6.38
-10.08
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-38
Sack EPA
--
-10.75
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
24
48
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-5.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
Falcons+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+99.7
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.4
Time Adj
+28.4
Net QB Adjustment
+27.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-29.3
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
15
12
EPA / Rush
23
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U