nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ falcons week 7, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
3-3
37
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
10
ATLFalcons
1-5
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
10
14
10
37
Falcons
3
0
0
7
10

Spread

LAR logo
-3

Total

UNDER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
381
224
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
5.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.35
Passing Yards
--
186
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.35
Rushing Yards
90
38
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+6.38
-10.08
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-38
Sack EPA
--
-10.75
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
24
48
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-5.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+100.9
Base HFA
+53.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.7
Time Adj
+28.7
Net QB Adjustment
+27.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-28.2
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
12/30
3.9
74
01/12
-2.7
30
01/20
0.9
52
02/03
-8.1
8
09/08
-4.2
25
09/15
1.4
64
09/22
-1.2
45
09/29
3.8
77
10/03
3.0
72
10/13
-8.8
7
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
Value
Ptile
12/09
2.5
66
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
2.3
65
12/30
5.2
81
09/08
1.7
66
09/15
-0.7
48
09/22
8.0
93
09/29
1.7
66
10/06
6.4
88
10/13
10.0
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Rams logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15

EPA

EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
28
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Falcons logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
15
12
EPA / Rush
23
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
25
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/12
8
W
W
O
01/20
3
W
W
U
02/03
-10
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
-15
L
L
O
10/03
-1
L
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
26
W
W
O
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
-16
L
L
U
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/29
-14
L
L
U
10/06
-21
L
L
O
10/13
-1
L
L
O