nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ jaguars week 6, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
0-5
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
57°F
17 mph
23
JAXJaguars
2-3
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
57°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
7
3
0
4
0
14
Jaguars
6
0
0
14
3
23

Spread

LAR logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
262
492
Total Plays
53
84
Yards / Play
4.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.05
Passing Yards
207
326
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.10
Rushing Yards
55
166
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
13
33
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.35
-17.94
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-9
Sack EPA
-1.84
-4.54
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
52
15
Penalty EPA
-6.09
-2.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model81.9%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+13.4%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+296
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,275
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
-4.8
Final Difference
262.6
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

M. Bulger headshot

M. Bulger

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
11/16
-1.8
38
11/23
-5.4
13
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
0.1
53
12/21
-3.9
22
12/28
-1.1
44
09/13
-5.4
17
09/20
-1.3
42
09/27
-4.4
22
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Value
Ptile
12/01
0.7
57
12/07
-5.0
16
12/14
5.0
84
12/18
4.7
82
12/28
-1.3
42
09/13
-3.0
30
09/20
-0.3
47
09/27
4.1
76
10/04
10.3
97
10/11
-5.0
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Rams logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
32
24
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18

EPA

EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
30
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
29
16
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Jaguars logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27

EPA

EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
1
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
18
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-4
L
W
P
12/07
-24
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
L
P
12/21
-1
L
W
P
12/28
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-28
L
L
U
09/20
-2
L
W
U
09/27
-19
L
L
O
10/04
-35
L
L
U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-13
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/18
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
20
W
W
O
10/11
-41
L
L
U