LARRams
0-5
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
57°F
17 mph
23
JAXJaguars
2-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
57°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
7
3
0
4
0
14
Jaguars
6
0
0
14
3
23
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
492
Total Plays
53
84
Yards / Play
4.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.05
Passing Yards
207
326
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.10
Rushing Yards
55
166
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
33
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.35
-17.94
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-9
Sack EPA
-1.84
-4.54
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
52
15
Penalty EPA
-6.09
-2.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model81.9%
Spread Pick
Jaguars-9.5
Expected Value
+13.4%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+296
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,276
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
-5.0
Final Difference
262.3
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
M. Bulger
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
24
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
29
16
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U