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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ jaguars week 6, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
3-2
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
10 mph
17
JAXJaguars
3-2
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
17
1
0
3
21
Jaguars
14
0
3
0
17

Spread

LAR logo
+1

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
249
389
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
4.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.25
Passing Yards
107
220
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.21
Rushing Yards
142
169
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.94
-5.23
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-21
Sack EPA
-4.93
-6.34
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
70
40
Penalty EPA
-5.68
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+47.6
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Value
Ptile
12/04
-11.7
1
12/11
-6.0
12
12/15
-7.3
7
12/24
-12.7
1
01/01
-10.6
2
09/10
4.0
80
09/17
-3.7
26
09/21
8.5
94
10/01
1.7
65
10/08
-5.2
19
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.6
23
12/11
-0.3
46
12/18
-8.9
4
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
3.0
72
09/10
-0.6
47
09/17
-3.2
29
09/24
9.0
96
10/01
-4.6
21
10/08
-6.3
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Rams logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
8
3
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17

EPA

EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
7
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
29
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Jaguars logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27

EPA

EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
6
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
1
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-16
L
L
U
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
-21
L
L
U
12/24
-1
L
L
O
01/01
-38
L
L
O
09/10
37
W
W
O
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/21
2
W
L
O
10/01
5
W
W
O
10/08
-6
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/24
21
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/10
22
W
W
U
09/17
-21
L
L
O
09/24
37
W
W
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/08
21
W
W
U