LARRams
3-2
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
10 mph
17
JAXJaguars
3-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
17
1
0
3
21
Jaguars
14
0
3
0
17
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
249
389
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
4.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.25
Passing Yards
107
220
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.21
Rushing Yards
142
169
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.94
-5.23
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-21
Sack EPA
-4.93
-6.34
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
70
40
Penalty EPA
-5.68
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-17.5
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
8
3
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
7
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
29
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
6
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U