LARRams
3-2
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
2-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
7
7
7
28
Lions
7
7
7
10
31
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
348
Total Plays
55
58
Yards / Play
7.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.30
Passing Yards
311
265
Comp/Att
27/32(84%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.66
+0.61
Rushing Yards
76
83
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
67%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.55
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-5
Sack EPA
-1.47
-1.10
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
62
62
Penalty EPA
-9.16
-7.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+108.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
32
31
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
1
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
22
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
32
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U