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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ lions week 8, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
0-7
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
10
DETLions
1-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
7
0
7
17
Lions
0
2
0
8
10

Spread

LAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
362
291
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
5.8
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
164
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
14/34(41%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.19
Rushing Yards
150
127
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-1.90
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.43
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
27
67
Penalty EPA
-3.89
-7.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,307
Away nfelo
1,299
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Bulger headshot

M. Bulger

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
0.1
53
12/21
-3.9
22
12/28
-1.1
44
09/13
-5.4
17
09/20
-1.3
42
09/27
-4.4
22
10/18
-1.3
41
10/25
-8.2
7
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Value
Ptile
09/13
-7.1
10
09/20
-4.0
24
09/27
2.5
66
10/04
-0.1
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Rams logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
31
17
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Lions logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27

EPA

EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
32
31
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
24
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-3
L
L
P
12/21
-1
L
W
P
12/28
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-28
L
L
U
09/20
-2
L
W
U
09/27
-19
L
L
O
10/04
-35
L
L
U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-36
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-3-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-4
L
W
P
12/14
-10
L
W
P
12/21
-35
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
W
P
09/13
-18
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
-24
L
L
O
10/11
-8
L
W
O
10/18
-26
L
L
U