LARRams
0-7
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
010
DETLions
1-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
7
0
7
17
Lions
0
2
0
8
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
291
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
5.8
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
164
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
14/34(41%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.19
Rushing Yards
150
127
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-1.90
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.43
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
27
67
Penalty EPA
-3.89
-7.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,307
Away nfelo
1,299
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Bulger
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
31
17
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
32
31
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
24
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-3-4
O/U