LARRams
2-2
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
14 mph
24
GBPackers
4-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
10
0
0
10
Packers
8
0
7
3
18
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
322
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.28
Passing Yards
143
236
Comp/Att
12/31(39%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.70
-0.20
Rushing Yards
191
86
Rush Attempts
36
27
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
28%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-19.51
-15.40
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.57
-5.88
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
40
67
Penalty EPA
-4.07
-7.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19
EPA
EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
32
7
EPA / Rush
24
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
8
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U