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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ packers week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
2-2
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
14 mph
24
GBPackers
4-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
67°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
10
0
0
10
Packers
8
0
7
3
18

Spread

GB logo
-9

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
334
322
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.28
Passing Yards
143
236
Comp/Att
12/31(39%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.70
-0.20
Rushing Yards
191
86
Rush Attempts
36
27
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
28%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-19.51
-15.40
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.57
-5.88
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
40
67
Penalty EPA
-4.07
-7.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
09/21
9.3
95
09/28
-7.8
8
10/05
2.2
67
10/12
-0.2
48
10/26
4.3
79
11/02
-5.0
19
09/13
5.3
83
09/20
-3.6
24
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
2.6
69
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Value
Ptile
12/08
8.3
92
12/14
-6.1
15
12/21
5.8
85
12/28
8.2
92
01/11
6.0
87
01/18
-2.7
31
09/13
6.6
89
09/20
5.4
84
09/28
12.3
99
10/04
1.7
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Rams logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19

EPA

EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
32
7
EPA / Rush
24
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
14
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Packers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21

EPA

EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
8
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
16
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
52
W
W
O
12/07
24
W
W
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/28
-14
L
L
U
09/13
3
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/14
-8
L
L
U
12/21
17
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
O
01/11
5
W
L
U
01/18
-6
L
W
O
09/13
8
W
W
O
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/28
10
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U