LARRams
7-3
28
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
14 mph
36
GBPackers
8-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
17
0
11
28
Packers
7
13
10
0
30
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
399
Total Plays
62
79
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.07
Passing Yards
287
307
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.18
Rushing Yards
68
92
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.83
+5.08
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-8.08
-1.16
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.48
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model48.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+15.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.6
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
-2.9
Final Difference
12.4
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
31
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
11
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
17
23
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
12
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
6
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
7
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U