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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ panthers week 1, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
-
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
87°F
3 mph
27
CARPanthers
-
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
87°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
13
10
7
30
Panthers
0
3
10
14
27

Spread

LAR logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
349
343
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.15
Passing Yards
183
216
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.22
Rushing Yards
166
127
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-15.04
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-23
Sack EPA
-2.39
-4.24
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
43
46
Penalty EPA
+1.23
-4.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+90.0
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
-4.1
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
11/11
5.8
84
11/19
8.4
93
12/02
-5.9
13
12/09
-13.9
1
12/16
-0.1
46
12/23
3.3
71
12/30
3.9
74
01/12
-2.7
30
01/20
0.9
52
02/03
-8.1
8
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
10/14
5.0
79
10/21
5.1
80
10/28
10.3
97
11/04
2.1
63
11/08
-2.0
33
11/18
3.1
70
11/25
9.1
94
12/02
-4.7
19
12/09
-1.1
39
12/17
-9.2
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Panthers Defense
Rams logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29

EPA

EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
28
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Panthers Offense vs Rams Defense
Panthers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
20
17
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
20
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
14
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
5
W
L
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-9
L
L
U
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
22
W
W
U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/12
8
W
W
O
01/20
3
W
W
U
02/03
-10
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
15
W
W
O
11/04
14
W
W
O
11/08
-31
L
L
O
11/18
-1
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
-7
L
L
U
12/09
-6
L
L
U
12/17
-3
L
W
U
12/23
-14
L
L
U
12/30
19
W
W
O