LARRams
-
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
87°F
3 mph
27
CARPanthers
-
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
87°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
13
10
7
30
Panthers
0
3
10
14
27
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
343
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.15
Passing Yards
183
216
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.22
Rushing Yards
166
127
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-15.04
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-23
Sack EPA
-2.39
-4.24
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
43
46
Penalty EPA
+1.23
-4.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+4.1
Final Difference
-9.4
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
28
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Panthers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
17
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18
EPA
EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
20
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
15
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U