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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ ravens week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAR logo
LARRams
3-2
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
15 mph
3
BALRavens
1-4
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
14
0
17
Ravens
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

LAR logo
-7

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
241
296
Total Plays
51
75
Yards / Play
4.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.31
Passing Yards
167
117
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.55
Rushing Yards
74
179
Rush Attempts
23
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.87
-14.44
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-23
Sack EPA
-10.03
-4.31
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
80
Penalty EPA
-5.94
-7.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model64.8%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
-142.0
Home QB Adjustment
-124.3
Away QB Adjustment
+17.8
Market Regression
+7.3
Final Difference
-106.3
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
Value
Ptile
12/12
-0.4
46
12/22
-2.0
35
12/28
-3.0
28
01/13
1.3
58
01/19
0.5
52
09/07
0.3
54
09/14
2.1
65
09/21
-1.0
43
09/28
6.3
90
10/02
8.1
95
C. Rush headshot

C. Rush

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-124.3
Value
Ptile
10/16
-7.6
7
11/10
-6.8
9
11/18
-2.7
30
11/24
3.3
71
11/28
-1.2
40
12/09
-6.0
12
12/15
2.4
66
12/22
2.0
63
12/29
-6.4
11
10/05
-6.2
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Ravens Defense
Rams logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11

EPA

EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
12
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
11
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Ravens Offense vs Rams Defense
Ravens logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13

EPA

EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
29
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/28
4
W
L
U
01/05
-5
L
W
O
01/13
18
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
W
O
09/07
5
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
O
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/25
29
W
W
U
01/04
25
W
W
O
01/11
14
W
W
U
01/19
-2
L
L
O
09/07
-1
L
L
O
09/14
24
W
W
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-17
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
O