LARRams
3-2
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
15 mph
3
BALRavens
1-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
14
0
17
Ravens
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
296
Total Plays
51
75
Yards / Play
4.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.31
Passing Yards
167
117
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.55
Rushing Yards
74
179
Rush Attempts
23
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.87
-14.44
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-23
Sack EPA
-10.03
-4.31
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
80
Penalty EPA
-5.94
-7.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
Ravens+7.0
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
-142.0
Home QB Adjustment
-124.3
Away QB Adjustment
+17.8
Market Regression
+7.4
Final Difference
-104.9
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-124.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
27
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
24
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
8
15
Ravens Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
2
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
16
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
6
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U