LARRams
4-5
13
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
14 mph
16
BALRavens
2-7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
0
6
0
13
Ravens
0
3
0
13
16
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
388
Total Plays
56
73
Yards / Play
3.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.24
Passing Yards
131
292
Comp/Att
12/26(46%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.20
Rushing Yards
82
96
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.56
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
16
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
23%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-13.46
-6.47
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-7
Sack EPA
-2.77
-1.37
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
35
137
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-14.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+72.8
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
+82.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-70.6
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-70.6
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12
EPA
EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
10
32
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Ravens Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
21
EPA
EPA / Play
22
6
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
3
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
24
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U